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Recent effect of climate change on melanoma burden and emerging therapeutic strategies
* Corresponding author: Aditi Kulshreshtha, Department of School of Bioengineering and Food Technology, Shoolini University of Biotechnology and Management Sciences, Kasauli Hills, Solan, 173229, Himachal Pradesh, India. aditikul2202@gmail.com
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Received: ,
Accepted: ,
How to cite this article: Kulshreshtha A, Jana S, Kumar P, Khan A, Lohia A. Recent effect of climate change on melanoma burden and emerging therapeutic strategies. Future Health. 2026;4:29-38. doi: 10.25259/FH_92_2025
Abstract
This comprehensive review examines the escalating global burden of melanoma in the context of climate change, drawing insights from the IHME Global Burden of Disease results. It delineates the multifaceted mechanisms by which climate change factors, including enhanced ultraviolet radiation, rising temperatures, and air pollution, contribute to melanoma pathogenesis. Furthermore, the paper highlights recent advancements in melanoma therapeutic strategies, encompassing targeted therapies, immunotherapies, and novel approaches. The review concludes by outlining crucial prevention, adaptation, and mitigation strategies for dermatologists and public health systems to address this complex and growing health challenge effectively.
Keywords
Climate change
Dermatology
Immunotherapy
Melanoma
Public health
Targeted therapy
Ultraviolet radiation
INTRODUCTION
Melanoma, which typically arises from malignant melanocytes, is considered the most aggressive form of skin cancer.1,2 Characterized by its rapid and malignant progression alongside its metastatic property, melanoma poses a formidable challenge in oncology.2 Despite the global implementation of various screening programs, the incidence of melanoma continues to progress at a massive rate, forcing the dermatological healthcare systems to the brink.3,4 In 2022 alone, 333,000 new melanoma cases were diagnosed, tragically leading to more than 60,000 fatalities.3 The escalating burden prompts the urgent need for a deeper understanding of its drivers and planning of more effective interventional strategies to address its threat.3,4
In this scenario, climate change emerges as a profound and pervasive determinant of human health, with beyond-understandable effects across medical disciplines, where dermatology does not stand as an exception.5 The skin, serving as the largest organ and the most outer organ of the body, primarily interfaces with the external environmental exposures, mostly, thus making it vulnerable to environmentally induced pathogens. As global climatic patterns shift constantly, the exposure of skin to adverse environmental factors increases by a lot, directly influencing the dermatological health and disease prevalence.3-5
This review aims to deliver a comprehensive and authoritative synthesis of the recent impacts of climate change on the global burden of melanoma. It also explores the associated mechanisms through which climatic shifts contribute to melanoma malignancies. Furthermore, the review delves into the evolving landscape of therapeutic strategies, highlighting the notable advancements in targeted therapies, immunotherapies, and novel treatment modalities, which may appear as counter-strategies to combat the rising burden of melanoma. Thereby, this review serves its objective to offer clinically oriented information that can enhance recent patient care, guide the future dermatological research and strategies, and inform robust public health interventions in response to this controversial and accelerating public health crisis.
GLOBAL SCENARIO OF MELANOMA
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, done by the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), offers valuable insights into the progressive global trends of various diseases, including melanoma and other cancer types. One of those GBD reports, from 2021 (GBD 2021), reported a significant and concerning trajectory for the global burden of skin cancers, encompassing malignant melanoma, basal cell carcinoma (BCC), and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Between 1991 and 2021, the global age-standard incidence rate (ASIR) demonstrated a steady increase with a rise of 1.94% in the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). By 2021, the global incidence of skin cancers reached an alarming number of 6.64 million cases, corresponding to an ASIR of 77.66 per 100,000. The associated Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were reported as approximately 2.89 million cases, with an age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of 33.96 per 100,000 [Figure 1].3

- Global Burden of Disease Study (2019): Skin Cancer Trends and Geographic Disparities. This figure presents the rising global incidence of skin cancers, showing that while non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is more common, melanoma skin cancer (MSC) accounts for a larger share of DALYs. The map highlights higher melanoma burdens in high-income regions, emphasizing ongoing prevention challenges and global health disparities.
Focusing specifically on melanoma, its ASIR exhibited moderate-level increases throughout the study period from 1990 to 2021, where its ASDR notably showed a decline of 0.67% (EAPC) in between the studied years. The reduction in melanoma DALYs was the most pronounced between 2014 and 2021 with an APC decrease of 2.08%. This observed pattern indicates the rising of incidences alongside declining of DALYs, which supports the positive advancement effects on the diagnosis and therapeutics of melanoma. Though this represents a significant achievement in clinical management in melanoma, it simultaneously underscores the persistent and growing challenge of primary prevention. Despite accounting for a smaller proportion of total skin cancer cases (4.56%) in 2021, malignant melanoma was responsible for the majority of DALYs, with a percentage of 58.06. This scenario indicates the higher life-threatening effects of melanoma and emphasizes the severity of the need for effective critical care.3,4
Geographical influence on skin cancer is prominent in the global skin cancer burden. High-income regions, like North America and Australia, have consistently reported higher burdens of skin cancer over the years, which was represented by the highest ASIRs of skin cancer for these countries in this GBD study. For example, North America reported an ASIR of 730.16 per 100,000, with the United States recording an even higher national ASIR of 813.53 per 100,000. Australia recorded an ASDR of 141.67 per 100,000, the highest among continents, where New Zealand accounted for the highest ASDR country in Australia at 159.45 per 100,000. Closely looking, these countries were the countries that previously reported high degradation of the ozone layer in their upper atmosphere. Thereby, it is safe to state that the direct exposure to UV rays of fair-skinned people induced high radiation and extensive sun exposure to their skin, and without melanin in their skin, they fell victim to skin cancer.3
Also, middle-Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions demonstrated rapid increases in skin cancer incidences, such as East Asia with EAPC = 4.42%, especially China with EAPC = 4.47%. This proved that while the ASDR for overall skin cancers showed a slight decrease globally, it was not uniformly reflected across all regions. Here, some less economically developed countries also showed an increase in skin cancer cases, like Sub-Saharan Africa with EAPC = 1.10%, the Caribbean with EAPC = 0.91%, and Andean Latin America with EAPC = 0.80%. These trends point to significant disparities in healthcare access, early detection capabilities, and the availability of advanced treatments. These scenarios demonstrated improved outcomes in high-income countries due to their access to cutting-edge therapies, and in contrast, the lower-income countries faced more adverse effects among the skin cancer victims due to less advanced healthcare strategies and technologies.3
MULTIFACETED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MELANOMA PATHOGENESIS
Recent and frequent climate change, with excessive cold and heat waves and UV index, represents the possibility of severe melanoma malignancy induction to the current and future generations, a problem that requires urgent focus. Here, we explain the different pathogenesis mechanisms of melanoma, which are mostly induced through frequent climate changes and indirect behavioral adaptations.5-8
Enhanced ultraviolet exposure
The climate change contributed rise in melanoma is primarily due to the increase in ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in specific countries and regions, as a result of continuous ozone layer degradation. Despite global efforts by the Montreal Protocol, the layer of ozone in the stratosphere remains 3-5% lower in mid-latitudes, with a new Arctic ozone hole causing up to 60% more UVR in that region. Surveys on this very topic have reported the drop of ozone layer by 1% associates with an increase of 1-2% melanoma cases.9,10 Here, UV-B radiation initiates melanoma by directly damaging DNA, forming lesions like cyclobutene pyrimidine dimers (CPD) and 6-4-pyrimidone photoproducts (6-4PP), while UV-A generates ROS (Reactive Oxygen Species) that induce a high level of DNA damage and disrupt cellular functions through interacting with cellular biochemical reactions.11 By some reports, individuals with impaired MC1R signaling, such as those with red hair, are particularly at high risk due to elevated ROS levels. UVR also suppresses local immune responses, allowing the malignant tumor cells to evade detection and spread throughout the body through melanoma progression [Figure 2].12

- Mechanistic illustration of ozone layer depletion and its impact on UV-B radiation exposure and immune suppression. This figure demonstrates the process by which ozone layer depletion increases UV-B radiation penetration to the Earth’s surface. The upper panel shows how a healthy ozone layer filters UV-B radiation, whereas a depleted ozone layer allows more UV-B rays to reach the lower atmosphere. The lower panel depicts the biological consequences of enhanced UV-B exposure, including DNA damage, immune suppression, and cellular oxidative stress. These effects contribute to mutagenesis and increased risk of skin cancer. UVA radiation, while less filtered by ozone, also plays a role in DNA damage and oxidative stress. Collectively, these mechanisms illustrate how ozone depletion amplifies cutaneous and systemic health risks associated with ultraviolet (UV) radiation.
Rising temperature and behavioral adaptation
Global warming, a major concern for the health Earth, can also be regarded as a major concern for skin cancer due to both its direct biological effects and indirect behavioral modifications. Heat, directly promoting carcinogenesis within the skin, acts as the main contributor to melanoma in the case of global warming. Scientific modeling suggests that a global rise of 2°C in ambient temperature could lead to an 11% increase in skin cancer cases.13 Studies at the cellular level provide mechanistic support for this projection, demonstrating that thermal stress, particularly in cells exposed to UV-B radiation, inhibits the programmed apoptosis of UV-damaged cells. While in a normal scenario, cells with significant DNA damage are eliminated through apoptosis to prevent malignant transformation, the heat stress impairs these crucial repair mechanisms and elimination mechanisms, thus prompting the UV-damaged cells to survive longer than usual, which therefore accumulates a greater “mutational burden” and increases their propensity to develop into melanoma. This reveals a complex, multilevel interaction where climate change-induced heat directly disrupts the natural defense of the body against UV-induced skin cancer, suggesting that the impact of the rising temperatures is not only about increased exposures but also about impaired cellular resilience and DNA repair.11,14
Beyond these cellular effects, global-warming-driven temperature changes also significantly affect and influence human behavior, thus causing abnormal behavioral changes. These frequent climatic changes have altered regional disease patterns, leading to a substantial rise in melanoma incidence. For instance, prolonged warmer conditions encourage individuals to spend more time outside and wear less protective clothing, which increases their UV-exposure. This sudden behavioral shift in some regions translates into prolonged UV-exposures, mainly for outdoor workers, thus heightening the risk of melanoma among them. Furthermore, climate change can instigate human migration patterns, prompting populations to relocate to subtropical regions where UV intensity is naturally higher. This demographic shift exposes individuals to pronounced UV risks they may not have previously encountered, contributing to a global redistribution of melanoma burden.15,16
Air pollution and cutaneous carcinogenesis
Air pollution, a pervasive consequence of fossil fuel combustion and natural phenomena like wildfires, represents another significant environmental factor contributing to cutaneous carcinogenesis. These mentioned pollutants, including particulate matter and polyaromatic hydrocarbons, directly or indirectly interact with the skin through various mechanism, which therefore activates complex molecular pathways, notably the aryl hydrocarbon receptor, thus triggering inflammation and promoting carcinogenesis within the skin.17,18
Air pollution and UV exposure can also interact synergistically and induce skin cancers. In this scenario, the pollutants weaken the natural barrier of the skin and break down collagen, which exacerbates the sensitivity of the skin to UV rays. When the proactive mechanism of the skin is compromised, the likelihood of mutations in the skin cells increases significantly, contributing to the development of skin cancers, including basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and melanoma. This specialized mechanism acts as a double-edged sword to the skin, where the skin gets damaged from both internal cellular pathways and external barrier compromise. This mechanism is mostly shown in areas experiencing high levels of UV radiation and air pollution, which includes urban centers with intense sunlight, where the risk of skin cancer is amplified beyond the sum of individual risks. This necessitates integrated public health strategies that simultaneously address environmental pollutants and promote robust sun protection.17-19
ADVANCEMENTS IN MELANOMA THERAPEUTIC STRATEGIES
The landscape of melanoma treatment has undergone a profound transformation in recent years, moving towards more targeted and personalized approaches that offer improved outcomes for many patients. These advancements are critical in mitigating the rising burden of melanoma, especially as environmental factors continue to contribute to its incidence.20,21
Evolution of systemic therapies
The development of systematic therapies has been particularly impactful for treating skin cancer. Targeted therapies22 are the therapies that specifically interfere with the molecular pathways involved in cancer growth and progression, and these therapies have demonstrated considerable potential in treating skin cancers.23,24 For patients with BRAF-mutant melanoma, the introduction of BRAF inhibitors, including vemurafenib, dabrafenib, and encorafenib, and MEK inhibitors, like trametinib, cobimetinib, and binimetinib, has revolutionized the treatment, often used in combination to enhance efficacy and mitigate resistance.23-25 These agents have significantly improved response rates and survival for a substantial subset of melanoma patients.22-25
Similar to targeted therapies, immunotherapies26-28 have also become a cornerstone of modern melanoma management. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs)29-31 like nivolumab, ipilimumab, and pembrolizumab, mostly work by unleashing the own immune system of the body to recognize and attack cancer cells, have fundamentally altered the prognosis for many patients with advanced melanoma. Rather than ICIs, there exist other forms of immunotherapy, including oncolytic viruses32 like Talimogene Laherparepvec (T-VEC)33 and adoptive cell therapies34,35 such as Lifileucel, which represent further significant strides in harnessing the immune system to fight melanoma [Figure 3].

- Mechanisms of targeted therapies and immunotherapies in melanoma treatment. This figure illustrates key strategies in melanoma management, including targeted therapies and immunotherapies. On the left, targeted therapies focus on the RAS-RAF-MEK-ERK pathway, with BRAF and MEK inhibitors reducing tumor proliferation and promoting apoptosis. On the right, immunotherapies include ICIs) such as anti-PD-1, anti-P-L1, and anti-CTLA-4 antibodies, which restore T-cell activity against tumors. Additional immunotherapeutic approaches shown include oncolytic viruses that expose tumor antigens to the immune system and adoptive cell therapies like CAR T-cells, genetically engineered to target cancer cells. These modalities collectively enhance anti-tumor immune responses and inhibit melanoma progression.
Novel and emerging therapeutic approaches
Despite the remarkable successes of the targeted therapies and immunotherapies, there remain significant challenges in treating melanoma, mostly managing its aggressive subtypes, which exhibit inherent or acquired resistance. Thus, this development scenario drives towards novel and emerging therapeutic approaches to combat these aggressive subtypes of melanoma.36-38
One of these challenges arises in the form of NRAS-mutant melanoma, an aggressive subtype that accounts for approximately 25% of all melanoma cases, which demonstrates frequent resistance to current standard therapies, including both immunotherapy and targeted drugs. New research on this scenario has emerged with a drug called nitrosylation, known as a blocking chemical. This approaches turns NRAS-mutant melanoma cells more sensitive to MEK inhibitors, a class of drugs that target the MEK-ERK pathway crucial for tumor growth. Preclinical studies, done in both laboratory settings and animal models, have reported that the combination of nitrosylation inhibitors and MEK inhibitors leads to significantly slower tumor growth. If deeper details are shown about the compelling mechanism, it will be seen that blocking nitrosylation not only directly sensitizes cancer cells to existing treatments but also triggers immunogenic cell death. This process causes tumor cells to release specific distress signals, following which crucial immune cells, including CD-8 positive T-cells and dendritic cells, are attracted, which proves to be vital for mounting an effective anticancer response, thus enhancing the intrinsic ability of the body to attack the tumor. This dual action of direct tumor inhibition and immune system potentiation offers a new and potentially highly effective pathway for patients who currently have limited treatment options. Therefore, this new research, which overcomes the resistance from an aggressive melanoma subtype, exemplifies the ongoing research paradigm of understanding specific resistance mechanisms to develop more effective, personalized combination therapies for various cancer types.39,40
Beyond molecular targeting, nanotechnological approaches are becoming highly demanding for the treatment of melanoma and other skin cancer types.41-43 The process includes the designing of advanced nano-drug delivery systems which can precisely target melanoma cells,43 multifunctional nanomedicines capable of both imaging and therapy,44 and lipid-based nano-vesicular systems for improved drug encapsulation and delivery.45,46 Novel research on polymeric nanoparticles47 and magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia48 are also promising new heights to this field in delivering therapeutic agents more efficiently or to induce localized tumor destruction as per their performance in investigation and clinical trials. These new therapeutic strategies aim to pioneer a roadmap to overcome the limitations of conventional therapies, including drug resistance and systemic side effects, by enabling more targeted and localized treatment and delivery, therefore leading to more durable responses for patients [Figure 4].41-43

- Emerging therapeutic strategies and nanotechnological innovations for melanoma treatment. The top panel shows new therapies targeting NRAS-mutant melanoma, including nitrosylation inhibitors and dalotuzumab to promote immune activation and tumor suppression. The bottom panel illustrates nanotechnological approaches like nano-drug delivery and polymeric nanosystems for targeted therapy, controlled release, and diagnostic applications.
OUTLOOK
Addressing the escalating burden of melanoma in the context of climate change necessitates a comprehensive, multi-pronged approach that integrates public health strategies, healthcare system adaptations, and interdisciplinary collaboration.
Public health and prevention strategies
Despite the advancements of therapeutics against melanoma, the most effective strategy to combat it remains primary prevention. As for the most common primary prevention, it is stated to avoid excessive UV exposure to reduce the time of ultraviolet radiation induction to the skin. This involves consistent daily application of broad-spectrum sunscreen with an SPF of 30-50, even on cloudy days.49,50 Furthermore, protective clothing, like long-sleeved shirts, long pants, wide-brimmed hats, and UV-blocking sunglasses, provides a significant reduction of UV-radiation exposure to the skin. Seeking shade during the hour of high exposure, particularly from 10 AM to 4 PM, is also recommended for minimizing exposure.49-51 Contrary to the popular misconception that tanning beds provide a protective ‘base tan,’ artificial tanning devices emit concentrated UVA and UVB radiation that significantly increase the risk of melanoma. Studies have shown that individuals who begin indoor tanning before age 35 have up to a 75% higher risk of developing melanoma. The ultraviolet radiation from these beds damages DNA in skin cells, accelerates photoaging, and suppresses immune responses, all of which contribute to carcinogenesis. Therefore, tanning beds are not a preventive measure but a well-established risk factor for melanoma.52 Public health campaigns based on melanoma and skin cancer awareness camps are highly required in order to build behavioral modifications and take preventive measures starting from childhood.50,51
Beyond the primary prevention, early detection of melanoma plays a crucial role in treating it, as it is easy to minimize the growth of melanoma, let alone eliminate it, if treated in early stages. Here, regular dermatological check-ups may play a crucial role in detecting abnormal moles or suspicious skin lesions, especially for people who are at high risk of melanoma or carry any family medical history of skin cancer.53 Public education on “ABCDEs” of melanoma (Asymmetry, Border irregularity, Color variation, Diameter > 6mm, and Evolving changes) empowers individuals to perform effective self-assessment about their tendency to melanoma and seek professional dermatological help in identifying their melanoma malignancies early on to receive better treatment.54 Targeted interventions are also crucial for vulnerable populations, including outdoor workers, fair-skinned individuals, immunosuppressed patients, and those residing in lower socioeconomic contexts, as these groups require heightened public health awareness and tailored preventive strategies.55
Healthcare system adaptation and mitigation
The healthcare sector, while on the front line of addressing climate-related health impacts, also significantly contributes to climate change through its own carbon footprint, where it was estimated that cancer care accounts for approximately 4.4% of global emissions. This creates a feedback loop where increased disease burden, partly driven by climate change, leads to more healthcare activity, which in turn increases emissions, further exacerbating climate change and its health consequences. This inherent interconnectedness underscores an ethical and practical imperative for the healthcare sector to not only adapt to climate change but also actively mitigate its own environmental impact.56
To achieve sustainability in healthcare sectors, hospitals will require a shifting towards more renewable energy uses, increasing the energy efficiency within the infrastructure, and adopting sustainable procurement practices for medical supplies and equipment. Furthermore, sustainable innovations in service delivery can significantly reduce emissions associated with patient and staff travel, which constitutes a large portion of the carbon footprint of cancer care. Strategies such as increasing the number of satellite centers for localized care, utilizing hypo-fractionated radiotherapy treatments, which require fewer patient visits, and expanding the use of telemedicine can substantially lower emissions. Telemedicine can especially offer the dual benefit of reducing travel-related emissions and improving access to care for patients in remote or underserved populations. Moreover, promoting feasible community-based cancer care generally has a lower carbon footprint compared to centralized hospital-based care.56,57
Healthcare systems must also focus on the process of continuing health services during hazardous climate events, including floods, wildfires, and hurricanes, which significantly disrupt cancer care, leading to delayed diagnosis, interrupted treatments, and ultimately impacting patient survival. National adaptation policies can play a critical role here, guiding governments and healthcare providers to develop robust strategies for building climate resilience within the health infrastructure.58,59
Future directions and interdisciplinary collaboration
Despite the significant progress in diagnostics and therapeutics, some research gaps persist in fully understanding the intricate relationship between climate change and skin cancer. As of literature, there is also a pressing need for further primary epidemiological research and systematic reviews, mostly focusing on the impacts in rural settings and considering the influence of social determinants of health on melanoma rates.60
Technological integrations may offer promising avenues for future interventions, where AI can play a vital role in analyzing vast environment data to determine individual patient risk profiles, enabling more personalized preventive strategies.61 Future innovations aiming for advancing wearable UV sensors62 and SPF-infused clothing63 can further enhance individual prevention efforts by offering real-time feedback on UV exposure alongside superior physical protection.
Also, policy and advocacy are indispensable components of a comprehensive response, where dermatologists and other healthcare professionals have a crucial role to play in climate advocacy, leveraging their expertise to generate evidence, educate the public, and champion global climate mitigation strategies. Public health campaigns that integrate climate change mitigation with cancer prevention can yield synergistic benefits, fostering healthier behaviors and environments simultaneously.64 The encouragement to continue a lifestyle with a healthy diet, like reduced red meat consumption, may benefit the cancer prevention strategies.65 This integrated approach maximizes public health impact by addressing multiple goals with single, mutually reinforcing interventions, highlighting the powerful potential of interdisciplinary collaboration in the face of interconnected global challenges.
CONCLUSION
The global burden of melanoma is rising, driven by climate change-related factors such as increased UV radiation from ozone depletion, higher temperatures influencing behavior, and air pollution’s carcinogenic effects. While age-standardized DALYs have declined due to advances in targeted therapies and immunotherapies, this progress is uneven, with under-resourced regions facing worsening outcomes. Addressing this challenge requires robust sun protection campaigns, early detection strategies, and a commitment from the healthcare sector to reduce its carbon footprint.
Future efforts must include investment in research exploring climate-related carcinogenesis, such as nitrosylation inhibition in aggressive melanomas, and the development of precise risk assessment tools. Interdisciplinary collaboration and technological innovation are key to enhancing prevention. Dermatologists must lead these efforts, advocating for integrated solutions that link public health, clinical practice, and climate action to curb the growing impact of melanoma in a warming world.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank and appreciate the Hon’ble Chancellor of Shoolini University of Biotechnology and Management Sciences, Kasuali Hills, Solan, HP, India 173229 for supporting the research and providing its resources.
Author contributions
AK: Writing, conceptualization, reviewing and editing; SJ: Writing, conceptualization, reviewing and editing; AL: Review and editing; PK: Review and editing; Az.K: Conceptualization, critical review of manuscript, editing, finalizing the draft.
Ethical approval
Institutional Review Board approval is not required.
Declaration of patient consent
The authors certify that they have obtained all appropriate patient consent forms. In the form, the patients have given their consent for their images and other clinical information to be reported in the journal. The patients understand that their names and initials will not be published and due efforts will be made to conceal their identity, but anonymity cannot be guaranteed.
Financial support and sponsorship
Nil.
Conflicts of interest
There are no conflicts of interest.
Use of artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted technology for manuscript preparation
The authors confirm that they have used artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted technology solely for language refinement and to improve the clarity of writing. No AI assistance was employed in the generation of scientific content, data analysis or interpretation.
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